BKE's shares have responded in kind, dropping from the mid-50s in 2015, to less than $20 in 2016. A review of BKE's 10Ks and 10Qs is insightful in trying to determine whether the shares offer any attractiveness at these lower levels. Source: Author's chart based on BKE's quarterly 10Ks and 10Qs A review of BKE's quarterly results is insightful. While the quarter over quarter sales comparisons did not turn negative until 1Q15, the gross margin and EPS comparisons actually turned negative in 3Q13 - and have remained unfavorable each quarter since. BKE's selling expenses, rent expense and tax rates have showed little change, so the decline in earnings appears to be isolated to the revenue and gross margin inputs. Source: Author's chart based on BKE's quarterly 10Ks and 10Qs BKE derives roughly three-quarters of its sales from denims and tops (including sweaters). This core sales component has been the source of BKE's sales decline, as evidenced in the chart below. Denim and tops comprised 80.4% of BKE's 2008 sales and have dropped to less than 72% of BKE's sales in 2016, with the decline most pronounced in the denim category. During BKE's 3Q earnings call, in response to a question regarding margin compression, management attributed the decline to lower sales of boots compared to the year ago period. While that may be true in the most recent quarter, it is apparent that the steady decline in BKE's overall sales corresponds directly with the decline of denims as a percentage of BKE's overall sales. Source: Author's chart based on BKE's quarterly 10Ks and 10Qs When BKE reports its year-end results, I will be looking carefully at its sales breakdown and margins.
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Reality Check verdict: We do not have enough data to put a figure on the proportion of beds that will close under current plans. Only one-third of local NHS plans give any information about bed closures. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said at Prime Minister's Questions this week: "Her government is proposing, through sustainability and transformation, to cut one-third of the beds in all our hospitals in the very near future." He was referring to the Sustainability and Transformation Plans (STPs), which are the plans that local NHS areas have been asked to come up with to change services in order to make themselves financially sustainable. They are part of NHS England chief executive Simon Stevens' Five Year Forward View. England has been divided into 44 areas, each of which has its own STP. Although some of the STPs have quite precise plans, others are quite vague. That means it is difficult to come up with a precise figure for the number of beds being closed. In fact, according to Labour Party health researchers, only 14 of the 44 STPs mention bed closures. That is one-third of the STPs, although that might just be a coincidence. Mr Corbyn's team has been unable to show Reality Check where he got the number that he used in Parliament. Among the STPs with the most precise figures was Derbyshire, where 535 of 1,771 beds will be cut by 2020-21, a cut of 30%.
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